Political swing of Eelam by-election

In this, the by-election activity has become more interesting due to the enthusiastic presence of the new Kolte Fere identity supporters after the naming of Koshi province by identity politics.

Second Republican Parliament Although there is no significant difference in the power calculation, this result for the remaining three years It will create an atmosphere for a new psychology about the internal politics of the party and the role of national politics.

Nepali Congress Parliamentary inquiry committee on the cooperative issue and creatively This by-election is being held at the height of the RSVP's patriot Urlando Khare by blocking the parliament. Only a few inside and outside the Congress thought that the Congress was stuck in this way regarding the suspected involvement of Ravi Lamichhane in the cooperative case.

Although chief whip Ramesh Akhtar brought up the matter in the Parliament regarding the cooperative issue, the Congress party held a meeting regarding the cooperative issue after the suspicion was expressed from inside and outside the party that it was not a unanimous decision of the party. The parliamentary party had made a formal decision.

Ravi's 'old all bad and new all good' Ekohoro Sankathan has begun to break. The new one has been revealed to be more pretentious and duplicitous. In this one month, the line of Nepali Congress workers has agreed on the party policy regarding the cooperative issue and at the level of the common people It seems to be succeeding in breaking the widespread confusion.

Since the founding of the party, no matter how many questions have been raised about Ravi's credibility and accountability, he has been able to raise his hand in this matter. Just as supporters from all over the country reached Chitwan and Tanahun and created an atmosphere, now even though they are using full power, the atmosphere has been able to heat up in his favor.

in Elam by-election Elam Candidates within the district are competing for the election. Apart from the party's identity, if any old and double identity is established among the voters, it is only Congress candidate Dumbar Khadka .

via social worker personality Khadka is constantly connected with the life of Elam by his sense of service whether it Be it during the Corona crisis or whatever During natural calamities Be it or in any social campaign His presence has sympathy among the people .

Apart from that, he was not only defeated by a very narrow margin with Subas Nemwang in the last election, he was installed as the alternative leader of Elam after heavy weight Subas Nemwang. After the demise of Subas in the politics of Eelam, the Congress again gave him a ticket. is taking the initiative of strong presence of Congress.

Subas son Suhang is contesting the election for the first time . Since he had no personal investment in the party, he was given membership in the legal department of the party only a few days before sending him to the field. RSVP candidate Milan Limbu Apart from being an identitarian journalist leader, he has worked as a Maoist activist for a long time.

to the common candidate of the identity party Dakendrasingh Thegim With the help of independent Mayer Harak Sampang from Dharan, it has become easy to create atmosphere. In this article, CPN-UML, Congress, and SWAP- And an attempt has been made to look at it separately from the perspective of identity advocates.

scenario 1

2079 The by-elections of Elam are being held against the backdrop of UML becoming the second largest party in the 2079 November election results. If Suhang Nemwang, the son of late leader Subas Nemwang, the candidate of CPN UML wins, the traditional dominance of UML in the politics of Koshi East will be restored .

This will maintain the confidence of party president KP Oli and his leadership style which is appearing in the decision-making process within the party will increase. But as Suhang will emerge as a new star in the dynasty tradition within the UML, it seems that the local ranks of the UML are not comfortable accepting the central servitude of the Communist Party.

Despite the alliance with Maoists and other leftist parties, if UML settles for second place, KP Oli's light will fall . This will lead to deep dissatisfaction within the party regarding his tajbiji decision-making style and the justification of his leadership will be openly questioned within the party. Along with that Not only in the politics of Eelam, but also in the Eastern Hills, UML's influence will begin to decline. So KP Oli in this election It seems that he exerted all his strength without letting anyone dominate him.

scenario 2

Nepali Congress became the first party of the second republican parliament by leading the coalition to preserve the constitution, but it has turned away from being a power partner for the second time. Despite the reluctance of party chairman Deuba, the general committee meeting held in February decided not to form an alliance before the election. General Minister Gagan Thapa and other policies passed After It is the first election to be held in Ilam.

This election has become a question of prestige for the generation that wants to take the leadership after Deuba's break to convey the confidence that the result can be in their favor even if they go to the election with all the unity within the Congress party. As the commander of this election, General Minister Bishwa Prakash Sharma is leading the election campaign and seems to have advanced the election strategy by learning from the by-elections of Tanahun and Chitwan.

If the candidate of Nepali Congress, President of Nepali Congress of Ilam District Dumbar Khadka wins, not only will the new policy seen in the internal politics of the Congress be approved, but it will increase the confidence of the Congress in the national politics. The process of losing Congress workers to RSVP will also be stopped . In the event that the resolutions passed in the General Committee meeting before the Congress is defeated, the President's policy will be effective again in the event that the resolutions passed by the Central Committee are not approved.

Even if the result of Elam is not in his favor As the Congress used the co-operative issue to establish the rule of law, and aggressively dominated its national politics Ravi has been forced to become unexpectedly defensive and will gain enormous energy for the Congress.

scenario 3

The Elam by-election has become a hotly contested issue for the RSVP. This election is proving to be an iron thorn for the RSVP who is trying to increase its footprints by misusing all the power. Party Chairman and Vice President And since the Home Minister election was announced, it seems that more time has been spent in Ilam than in Kathmandu.

Chitwan Tanahun and Bara by-elections to the party is very excited for mission 084 The result obtained by Elam in the psychological battle Will leave a special impression. The RSWP, which has been discouraged for the expansion of the organization from Bara to Terai, is very careful not to suffer such a result from Ilam, but it seems that the result will not be what they expected.

On the contrary, it will be a serious and thought-provoking matter for the party to see the competition of the president with the identity party power for the third place. Question others but when you question yourself When trying to adopt a no-answer style And since he could not give a reliable answer to the questions raised by the Congress in the cooperative case, his intentions have been widely doubted . Prachanda and Oli No matter how much she defends in the beginning, Ravi's steps are slowly falling .

The RSVP, which has benefited from the weak candidate of UML in Tanahun, has not seen any such benefit in Ilam. In Tanahun and Chitwan by-elections against them Accused of taking all the power and power and the Rashwapa is now coming On the contrary, there are allegations. Falling into third or fourth place in Elam Upanirwachan is sure to be more expensive for him than the case of forfeiture of Bara's bail. Ramesh Kharel, who contested the election in Bara, has left RSVP.

Elam, without even becoming a second power, was defeated and had to leave the power equation when it reached Kathmandu. of the situation Confrontation will require finding a new trump card to emerge from the psychology of desperation, which they don't have. Deputy Chairman Swarnim Wagle, who was seen as his alternative, has tarnished his reputation when he defended party chairman Ravi in ​​the cooperative case. No other party's top leader has held as many meetings and corner meetings as Ravi and Swarnim in Ilam.

scenario 4

Dikendra's candidature as a common candidate of about four dozen organizations in favor of identity has given a new shape to identity politics in Koshi province. Among the seven provinces, it was the slowest With the naming of Koshi province, the momentum of politics taken by identity politics has assumed a more aggressive shape from the sub-designation of Elam.

Identity supporters winning in Ilam will be an unprecedented moment not only for the politics of Koshi province but for the identity politicians of the entire country, but as the elections are approaching, it does not seem possible due to the extremist style displayed by them. If that happens, the issue of identity in national politics will be polarized around the time of the first Constituent Assembly.

UML's victory in Eelam defeating the identity partisans will be the biggest liberal shock to the identity politicians. The victory of Congress in Eelam will also be an indirect victory for the supporters of identity because only the Nepali Congress Party is openly accepting the mistake in the naming of Koshi province and renaming it.

The Koshi government under the leadership of Congress, the negotiation committee, three-phase negotiations and 14 district presidents under the leadership of Elam president Dumbar Khadka It seems that even among the pro-identity voters, there is sympathy for the Congress that the signature campaign for the re-naming of the idea will find the identity of the Congress and eliminate the conflict. No matter how aggressive identity politics is in the eastern hills, when it is expressed in the election, according to the opinion of the election, the Congress is much lower than the UML and the Maoists. The energy gained in this Ilam by-election will keep them enthusiastic in the future.

at the end,

Therefore, at a glance, in the by-election of Elam two In terms of geography, the participation is limited only to Elam, but the whole country is taken as an interest, which is also justified. The major powers of the country want to convey the message that they are on their hands for 2084 by taking the election of Ilam-2 in their hands.

Ravi Lamichhane's reputation in national politics Trying to raise, maintain Oli's dominance within UML And the continuation of the conservative policy on identity, the proposed policy of Congress to contest the elections alone and the liberal policy on the fight for identity and the fight for identity by the identity advocates will be tested squarely in the Eelam Upanirwachan . Elam by-election The power to control the result From this election, they will try to spread their rhetoric and psychological victory across the country, while the remaining three parties who will be defeated will try to forget the Elam by-election after learning from it.

Elam by-election Bachita will guide the country's politics until 2084, because in light of the results of Elam, major political The powers that be will adopt a new policy. The message of Elam's politics will certainly not be normal as the major powers of the country have given it an uneven shape. are done .

Hail democracy, Hail election

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