Will Modi's ambitions be fulfilled?

If he wins the 2024 elections, his record of electoral victories will be equal to India's first Prime Minister Nehru . If he manages to complete his third term after winning the election, Nehru's record will also be broken . Nehru could not complete his third term .

Nehru was the Prime Minister of India for the longest consecutive period of 16 years and 9 months. Before the declaration of India's independence in 1947, Nehru got the leadership of the interim government. Congress won all the three Lok Sabha elections in 1952, 1957 and 1962 after the promulgation of the Constitution under the leadership of Nehru. As he died in 1964, he could not complete his term after winning the election for the third time. After Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi was the prime minister for 16 years. However, his tenure is not continuous .

Lal Bahadur Shastri became the Prime Minister after Nehru. However, he died in Uzbekistan on January 10, 1966 while he was on a visit to the then Soviet Union. After that, Indira Gandhi reached the chair of the Prime Minister . She was the Prime Minister continuously from January 1966 to March 1977 and then for three years from January 1980 to October 1984. Since Nehru and Gandhi spent more than 16 years as Prime Ministers, to break that long record, Modi should become the Prime Minister for a few years not only in 2024 but also after winning the 2029 elections . Indira Gandhi won the majority in both the Lok Sabha elections of 1967 and 1971.

She imposed a period of crisis in the country in 1975 after she lost her position due to the court verdict against her. Then his third term was extended . In the post-crisis election, all the opposition parties joined forces and launched a 'Remove Indira' campaign under the leadership of socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan. In the election of 1977, it was also worthwhile . For the first time after India's independence, a non-Congress government was formed. Morarji Desai became the prime minister from the opposition alliance. Indira Gandhi, who was considered powerful at that time, suffered a bad defeat. Not only Indira lost the said election, her son Sanjay was also defeated from Amethi.

Congress party reached Khumchin in 153 seats. The Janata Party-led coalition won 298 seats. At that time, the Congress could not win any of the 85 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 54 in Bihar. However, it did not take long for Indira Gandhi to return to power. She became the Prime Minister for the fourth time in three years. The split in the Janata Party broke the unity of the opposition coalition, and the country went into mid-term elections. In the 1980 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress returned to power with an overwhelming majority. Congress led by Indira Gandhi won 353 seats. On 31 October 1984, Indira was shot dead by her own bodyguard. Then his son Rajiv Gandhi became the Prime Minister. The Lok Sabha elections held in the same year were entirely in favor of the Congress. The son sympathized with his mother's murder. At that time, out of 541 Lok Sabha seats, Congress won 414 seats. Since then, no single party has had that number of presence in the parliament.

That was more than the seats won by Nehru and Indira Gandhi in the past . From the first election in 1952 to the period of the sixth Lok Sabha election in 1977, one party dominated. In the book 'The Verdict: Decoding India's Election' jointly written by famous Indian journalist Pranay Roy and Dorab R. Sopariwala, the period of 25 years is explained as a 'honeymoon period' between the voters and the leader . The book says that the Indian elections in its nascent period reflected the widespread acceptance of the Congress party after independence at the time. Calling the result of 1977 as the first change, the author has analyzed that only after that the "pro-authority trend" began to change into an "anti-authority trend" dissatisfied with Sarka .

After 1984, it took 30 years for any single party to win a majority. When Manmohan Singh was Prime Minister for two terms, or Atal Bihari Vajpayee or PV Narasimha Rao, no one had a single majority government. In 2014, the BJP alone won a historic victory and won the majority. In the 543-member Lok Sabha, the BJP got 272 and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) got 336. Even after 5 years in 2019, 'Modi's magic' continued . 303 seats of BJP alone and 352 seats of the alliance reached. Motivated by the two consecutive victories in the Lok Sabha and the states, Modi said that this time the BJP's single target is 370 seats and the NDA alliance's target is 400 seats. It is seen as Modi's desire to bring every record of every politics to his name .

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi . Photos: Reuters

Manindranath Thakur, a professor at the Center for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, says that Prime Minister Modi is dominated by the psychology of making every field record in his name . "It seems that Modi entered the election field with the mentality of equaling the records of Nehru and Rajiv Gandhi after winning the election for the third time and crossing 400 seats," he said in a conversation with Kantipur. Psychology was dominant.' He commented that besides bringing the records in his name, he also had the intention to amend the constitution.

Challenges to Modi's goals

Congress got 47 percent of the total votes cast when Rajiv Gandhi cut 400 seats. Under the leadership of Modi, the BJP got only 31 percent votes in 2014 and 37 percent in 2019. Even though the BJP-led NDA alliance got 45 percent of the total votes, it was 48 seats short of reaching 400. Modi needs to win more than 90 and 60 percent seats in many states to bring 400 seats in his favour. Which is very challenging. Professor Thakur says that ``Modi wave'' is needed among the voters for that. His analysis is that for a party to cross 400 seats, there must be a wave among the voters and that situation is not present now.

In 1977, when Indira Gandhi lost the election, there was a wave in favor of the opposition. The opposition came together to remove Indira . It had an impact on voters. When Manmohan Singh exited in 2014, the BJP benefited from the anti-government wave. "However, there is no anti-government or opposition wave at this time," Professor Thakur said, "There is only one slogan out of 400, a strategy to psychologically influence the voters and the opposition." The one who brought this topic should know very well that it is not possible to cross 400 . Crossing 400 is only possible when there is an emotional wave among the voters.' Even though the anti-government wave has subsided, he analyzes that the 'wave' is not in favor of the government as it was before.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at a rally in Wayanad, Kerala. Gandhi has become a candidate in the Lok Sabha elections from the Wayanad region.

Last time, 55 percent votes were cast against Modi. In 2019, there could not be such a front blockade between the opposition parties. The opposition parties have formed an alliance with the strategy of collecting 55 percent of the votes against Modi. However, due to the exit of Nitish Kumar in Bihar, the failure of Congress to form an alliance with the Trinamool Congress in Bengal and the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab, similarly, the Congress has entered into a friendly competition with the Communist Party in the south. It has not been able to strengthen the alliance . However, he is in a position to challenge Modi to some extent.

Congress president Mallikarjun Khadge has claimed that at least 80 percent of the seats have been aligned across the country. In an interview given to India Today, he says that even though Modi did not give him a level playing field, this election will be tough for him. Professor Thakur comments that the opposition coalition is challenging Modi's confidence of victory even before the election.

Even if the opposition alliance led by the Congress could stop the BJP within the 272 seats needed for a majority, they have adopted a strategy to reduce Modi's influence. India has had a BJP government for 10 consecutive years, Modi is the Prime Minister. There is also dissatisfaction with the opposition to the government at one level within the party and outside. Conflicts have been seen at various levels within the party, and the struggle for power has started. Some are continuously in power, some have not got the opportunity, there is tension even within the RSS,' said Thakur, 'It is only because it is a very disciplined organization, the conversation within the RSS has not come out. The middle class voters have started to add up what we got in 10 years . On the whole, even if these things are small, it will affect the BJP.''

On the other hand, Muslim-majority constituencies will affect the BJP . There are at least 75 such Lok Sabha seats, where Muslim voters are in majority . BJP is not the first choice of the Muslim community in those constituencies. However, the BJP has been reaping the benefits of distributing their votes to the opposition. This time, with the unity between the opposition parties and the strategy to defeat the BJP, there is a possibility that the Muslim vote will go to the same candidate who is the rival of the BJP. Journalist and analyst Awadhesh Kumar believes that this situation is challenging for BJP. He said that even though the opposition is not strong enough to compete with the BJP at the national level, an environment has been created this time where the opposition can compete with the BJP in some states compared to the previous elections.

The foundation of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress Party is strong in Delhi. BJP won all the seven seats in Delhi when both fought separately last time . But this year, AAP and Congress have formed an alliance. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is in jail. It is also likely to get sympathy votes. Analyzing the situation, Kumar said that there is an added challenge to the BJP in Delhi. Similarly, BJP's presence in Punjab and southern states is not good .

Even in Maharashtra and Bihar, the opposition alliance seems relatively strong compared to the previous time . In Bihar, the alliance between the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal has leveled the fight between the ruling party and the opposition. Whereas, the previous time, 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar were taken by the BJP-led alliance.

In Maharashtra, the BJP contested the elections with Shiv Sena the previous time. This year the Shiv Sena split and one part went with the BJP and the other with the Congress.

Despite being in the government for 10 consecutive years, Modi's popularity has not decreased. He claims that the mood is in his favor due to the issues of public welfare and development brought by Modi. According to Kumar, issues such as the construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya, the repeal of Article 370 of the Constitution to remove the privileges of Kashmir, the law granting citizenship to non-Muslim refugees will further polarize the Hindu voters in favor of the BJP .

He says that since Modi has completed one of the issues mentioned in the manifesto, there is a consensus that the future will be better under his leadership.

After winning the election, Modi's promise to take concrete decisions in favor of the country and the people every day for the next 100 days, to make India the third strongest economic country within the next three years, and to stand in the ranks of developed countries by 2047, has attracted the voters . It is estimated that if Modi wins the third term, there will be many amendments in the constitution.

Elections at all levels at the same time, there is a possibility that some amendments will be made to promote Hindutva from issues such as calling India Bharat. However, that has not been clear . The opposition parties have expressed fear that democracy will weaken if Modi wins for the third time.

Before BJP released its manifesto, Congress announced 25 guarantees in its election manifesto. Among them, 1 lakh rupees will be provided to poor women per year, the minimum price of agricultural products will be set, 50 percent guarantee will be provided to women in government jobs, and the Agniveer program for the army will be cancelled. To be done, the issue of nationwide caste census is important.

Congress is trying to cut BJP's Hindutva card through caste calculation . Congress is trying to persuade the voters by giving the slogan of giving the government services and access according to the caste population. Similarly, the Congress has guaranteed in its manifesto, 30 lakh appointments to government posts, 1 lakh rupees per year allowance for unemployed graduates.

Apart from that, the opposition party has increased attacks on the BJP over the issue of 'electoral bond' on Modi's strategy of showing the opposition as corrupt. The opposition alliance has made an election issue by linking the BJP's receipt of more than 8 billion rupees through electoral bonds with corruption.

Analyst Kumar, who is considered to be close to the BJP, does not deny that there has been some dissatisfaction among BJP supporters and workers who are aiming to achieve a 'huge victory' for the third time. The size of that dissatisfaction is not big. But if they don't work to win the party, it will have some effect," he said. "On the other hand, even with the slogan of 400 people, don't they come to vote for their own supporters that this is still a victory? Bringing them all to the polling station is also a challenge for the BJP.

Prime Minister Modi's confidence is high. A large part of the media has also helped him more. He is saying that he has won the election in every speech.

Professor Thakur believes that the reason behind that is the belief that he will get the support of a large number of rural voters. The main weapon in Modi's electoral arsenal is the social welfare scheme. Poor people have got the benefits of dozens of central schemes. That could prove to be decisive . Distribution of domestic gas, free ration, health insurance, bank accounts etc. are prominent.

Efforts have been made to bring roads, electricity and water to the last corner of the village. Houses are given to the poor. "The number of beneficiaries of the scheme brought by the Modi government is large," Professor Thakur said.